From the Paris Agreement to COP30: From Moral Momentum to Strategic Imperative

Published on 12/17/2025

Advocacy

Climate

Ten years after the Paris Agreement, COP30[1] in Belém unfolded against a backdrop of shifting global dynamics, where climate issues are increasingly intertwined with strategic, industrial, and sovereignty considerations. While the final text does not resolve all uncertainties, it confirms a clear trajectory: climate finance is entering a phase of maturity, one that demands greater credibility, transparency, and measurable outcomes. For Mirova, this 30^th edition highlighted both the growing influence of actors from the Global South and the emergence of more robust financial tools capable of mobilizing private capital at the scale required.

A New Global Balance, Alliances to Reconsider

The balance of power is evolving, with emerging economies playing a more assertive role and a diversity of coalitions reflecting priorities that have become more national and sector-specific. Climate is no longer an isolated issue; it now sits at the heart of trade-offs involving competitiveness, energy security, employment, and innovation. The transition is not slowing down, it is transforming and unfolding through concrete strategies, targeted partnerships, and industrial and technological solutions that require clear governance and shared standards. This evolution calls for rethinking cooperation frameworks and embedding climate action in roadmaps where efficiency, resilience, and integrity prevail.

Concrete Progress, Persistent Challenges

A Controversial Agreement

The agreements reached in Belém, notably the “Mutirão Global,” do not explicitly call for a phase-out of fossil fuels. The agreement sets a goal to triple adaptation finance by 2035 (rather than 2030 as initially hoped), establishes a just transition mechanism, and opens “dialogues” on unilateral trade measures². The Mutirão Global aims to keep the 1.5°C target “within reach,” while warning that the carbon budget is “now low and rapidly depleting,” and for the first time acknowledges a likely overshoot of this threshold².

Reactions were mixed: the European Union expressed disappointment, several Global South countries welcomed progress, and NGOs maintained their criticism. This COP was marked less by dialogue than by tensions, particularly between developing countries, led by China, and the EU, over the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and deforestation-related rules.

Adaptation and Blended Finance: Scaling Up

The emphasis on adaptation—and the prospect of increased funding—responds to strong expectations from the most vulnerable countries and to asset owners’ demand for credible pathways. Coalitions of asset owners and industry bodies (Net Zero Asset Owner Alliance, Principles for Responsible Investment, Institutional Investors Group on Climate Change, among others) are calling for portfolio alignment with science-based approaches, mobilization of private capital for climate and nature solutions, and blended public-private finance structures that can reduce risk and accelerate implementation.

This momentum is reflected in major initiatives announced in Belém, such as the RAIZ Accelerator (Resilient Agriculture Investment for Net-Zero Land Degradation), aiming to mobilize $90 billion to restore agricultural land, and the Tropical Forest Forever Facility, targeting $100 billion to protect tropical forests across 74 countries (with $9 billion in initial pledges, though operational rules remain to be defined)³.

These projects illustrate the rise of blended finance: funding architectures designed to de-risk investment, enhance transparency, and maximize impact. At Mirova, we share this commitment to coherence between pledges, investment strategies, and tangible results.

Toward High-Integrity Carbon Markets

COP30 delivered progress on carbon markets and reaffirmed that integrity is essential for their integration into investment strategies. Several initiatives announced in Belém support this goal:

The Open Coalition on Compliance Carbon Markets, led by Brazil and backed by 18 countries, pledged to harmonize regulatory carbon market rules and strengthen transparency.
The Coalition to Grow Carbon Markets, spearheaded by the UK, Singapore, and Kenya, aims to promote harmonized policies to boost demand for carbon credits.

On Article 6.4 (the Paris Agreement’s carbon credit mechanism), COP reaffirmed the Supervisory Body’s role and rules, while confirming the closure of the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism by end-2026. Additionally, given the Amazonian setting, several voluntary carbon project financings linked to forest protection and restoration were announced.

These initiatives reflect a clear ambition: making carbon markets more comparable, transparent, and aligned with climate goals. For Mirova, credibility depends on rigorous methodologies, effective governance, and traceability that allow investors to integrate these instruments without compromising environmental integrity.

Transition Bonds: A Framework to Accelerate Decarbonization

The release of new guidelines by the International Capital Market Association (ICMA) for transition bonds marks a major step toward structuring this market and strengthening investor confidence. Until now, the lack of a clear framework discouraged issuers in hard-to-abate sectors, who feared accusations of greenwashing. These guidelines provide the transparency and comparability needed to unlock credible financing.

For Mirova, this is a critical signal: the transition cannot be limited to strictly “green” projects. It requires supporting industrial and energy players on robust pathways to net zero—financing investments that cut emissions and accelerate the phase-out of the most polluting assets. This framework paves the way for instruments that channel capital toward real transformations, aligned with climate objectives and responsible investor expectations.

Measuring Corporate Climate Contribution: A Framework for Impact

COP30 also saw the presentation of the Climate Contribution Framework (CCF), developed by the Mirova Research Center and Sweep, in partnership with I Care and Winrock International. This framework offers a holistic, science-based approach to assessing companies’ contributions to global net zero—covering emissions reduction, deployment of climate solutions, and financing of innovative or nature-based projects. The goal is twofold: provide investors with a comparable tool for steering and evaluation, and to enable companies to showcase contributions beyond their operational footprint. This work responds to asset owners’ and industry groups’ calls for transparent, robust metrics aligned with existing standards.

Reinventing the Narrative to Deliver on Paris

Ten years after the Paris Agreement, COP30 calls for fewer proclamations and more credible mechanisms, massive financing, and reliable standards. For Mirova, the priority is coherence between commitments and outcomes, and the ability to demonstrate impact effectively and measurably. Progress on standardization, transition bond frameworks, carbon market integrity, adaptation financing, and recognition of corporate climate contributions are essential milestones.

But for climate to remain central in capital allocation, we must reinvent a narrative that combines environmental ambition with economic imperatives—competitiveness and security, innovation and resilience. Only under these conditions can climate finance fulfill, and extend, the promise of Paris.

Our commitment remains unchanged: to invest in solutions that accelerate the transition, exercise rigorous shareholder governance to support and, when necessary, drive transformations, and contribute to research and methodological frameworks that enable pragmatic, collective progress. This is the price for finance to play its full role in accelerating the transition.