Navigating 2026 - opportunities in a shifting landscape

Sluggish growth, but powerful secular forces: this will be the hallmark of the year ahead.
The major transformations underway in the world will continue, and while some of them create new risks, we also see them as a framework that should be incorporated into allocations on a long-term basis. Artificial intelligence, the energy transition and the new geopolitical paradigm are shaping growth, redrawing the balance of power and value chains. It is also these structuring forces that will guide capital flows.

We are not ignoring concerns about an artificial intelligence bubble, but this strong trend will continue to influence the world and the economy. Admittedly, there are unprofitable companies that are also overvalued, particularly among unlisted companies and producers of applications such as ChatGPT. However, the sector is also made up of large listed companies, whose profitability and cash flow generation are in line with their valuations. The focus is on the exceptionally high margins of some of these giants. A technological innovation, or competitive or regulatory pressure, could cause adjustments that are difficult to predict. But the underlying trend is solid: AI is gradually becoming a driver of productivity, and the capex cycle is massive. At a time when global growth is set to run out of steam, technology remains a central support on which investors will have to rely - while exercising discernment.

The energy transition, which paradoxically attracted little attention last year, also remains a major global challenge. Given the urgency of the transition, combined with an acute need for sovereignty and a rise in consumption as a result of AI, managing energy and its networks is a fast-growing area for investment. The financing requirements are colossal and will be difficult to meet by governments that are heavily in debt. Renewable energies, energy efficiency and networks are all growth segments, but they do not all have the same risk profile.
While investors may have grown impatient with the slow pace of the transition, we believe that this underlying trend is still far from being fully
appreciated.

In this world in search of sovereignty, we are also more convinced than ever of the importance of offering a responsible vision of investment.

Finally, it is undeniable that geopolitics has become the disruptive element for markets and companies. There are many conflicts, the world is fragmented and President Donald Trump's policies are reconfiguring the balance of power, particularly for Europe. This context, which is not an investment theme as such, is nevertheless a reminder of the extent to which the imperatives of sovereignty are vital for the Old Continent and could create a new production cycle.
Between short-term uncertainties and long-term transitions, our role is to offer a coherent reading, in line with our convictions.

Mirova's merger with Thematics AM is therefore an essential step, enabling us to bring together complementary expertise and strengthening our ability to invest in the themes we have identified. In this world in search of sovereignty, we are also more convinced than ever of the importance of offering a responsible vision of investment.