Mirovα, Creating Sustainable Value - May 2026
Key events - April 2026
• Iran: Neither war nor peace; a conflict marked by announcements of ceasefires, but with no clear resolution. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked.
• Markets: Indices have rebounded strongly, driven by investment in AI and strong corporate earnings: the S&P 500 is up 10.5%.
• Central banks: Faced with rising energy prices and fears of rising inflation expectations, central banks are adopting a more hawkish stance. The ECB paves the way for a rate hike in June.
Number of the month
Macro outlook
• Iran: The question is when the situation will become sufficiently untenable for both sides to force them to make concessions. In the meantime, the energy crisis drags on and weighs on global growth.
• United States: Headline Inflation reaches 3.8%, but no spillover or wageprice spiral at this stage. The Fed is monitoring the labour market, which continues to prove its resilience.
• Eurozone Europe’s exposure to the energy shock is beginning to be felt. Economic indicators are slowing and household confidence is deteriorating. The ECB is monitoring a potential stagflationary shock.
• China: The giant is consolidating its lead in strategic industrial sectors.
The Long View
The UK: gilt or break
• Iran: The question is when the situation will become sufficiently untenable for both sides to force them to make concessions. In the meantime, the energy crisis drags on and weighs on global growth.
• United States: Headline Inflation reaches 3.8%, but no spillover or wageprice spiral at this stage. The Fed is monitoring the labour market, which continues to prove its resilience.
• Eurozone Europe’s exposure to the energy shock is beginning to be felt. Economic indicators are slowing and household confidence is deteriorating. The ECB is monitoring a potential stagflationary shock.
• China: The giant is consolidating its lead in strategic industrial sectors.
