Mirovα, Creating Sustainable Value -March 2026
Published on 18/03/2026
In a nutshell
Key events – February 2026
- Markets: European equities rise for the 8th consecutive month, the first time this has happened since 2013. US markets are underperforming, penalised by the technology sector.
- Geopolitics: the United States and Israel launch strikes against Iran on 28 February, opening up a new source of major uncertainty for energy and inflation.
- Artificial intelligence: the release of agentic models (Claude Code, GPT 5.3 Codex) and an alarmist report on employment are causing a massive sell-off in software stocks.
- Tariffs: the Supreme Court strikes down Trump's IEEPA tariffs as unconstitutional. The authorities responded by invoking section 122 of the Trade Act.
5,280 $
Record price of an ounce of gold in February
Source: Bloomberg, February 2026.
Macro Outlook
- United States: resilient macro data so far and ISM manufacturing index at its highest for 3 years (52.6). The Fed remains in wait-and-see mode.
- Eurozone: industrial recovery in Germany, encouraging rise in PMI to 52. What about the conflict in Iran and soaring energy prices?
- Japan: historic electoral triumph for Sanae Takaichi, giving a free hand to fiscal stimulus.
- China: stabilisation without acceleration, PMI back below 50.
The Long View
Nuclear: proliferation in a vacuum
- Nuclear weapons are making a major comeback on the global stage, as the nine nations possessing them seem determined to bolster their arsenals.
- The treatment of Iran's leaders has just dramatically increased the cost of acquiring this nuclear status.
- In an increasingly conflict-ridden world, it's reassuring that these weapons remain in the hands of just nine states, seven of which maintain a clear doctrine of use.